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Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.497 equity (73.0% win probability) against Bears at 0.429 — a real gap of 0.068.

CHI team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs NO

60.2%Win prob73.0%

0.429Equity score0.497

−3.0Spread11/11 books−7.0

47.0Game total50.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12CHI @ DETnot played yet

Week 17DET @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · CHI 28 — DET 26. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1564.1

#17ELO rank#7

11-6Record9-8

NFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB18.2 · #24

21.7 · #16vs RB19.4 · #7

35.5 · #27vs WR35.6 · #29

13.1 · #14vs TE13.7 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game3 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game9.25

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

14.7% · #2Play action12.0% · #10

3.6% · #22RPO3.1% · #24

4.1% · #13Screen pass4.9% · #6

4.3% · #24No huddle5.0% · #20

44.2% · #28Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage42.6% · #4

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

28.7% · #23Pressure31.8% · #10

CHI scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)