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Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.519 equity (73.5% win probability) against Bears at 0.500 — a real gap of 0.019.

CHI team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ MIA

70.6%Win prob73.5%

0.500Equity score0.519

−6.0Spread11/11 books−7.0

47.5Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12CHI @ DETnot played yet

Week 17DET @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · CHI 28 — DET 26. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1560.8

#9ELO rank#6

6-2Record5-2

NFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#3

W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstW +4 · W +3 · W +24 · L 6 · W +7

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB24.8 · #28

17.8 · #3vs RB18.2 · #4

31.2 · #15vs WR37.6 · #26

12.0 · #9vs TE27.9 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game3.5 (2026)

9Pressures / game12.67

12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows16-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

14.7% · #2Play action12.0% · #10

3.6% · #22RPO3.1% · #24

4.1% · #13Screen pass4.9% · #6

4.3% · #24No huddle5.0% · #20

44.2% · #28Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage42.6% · #4

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

28.7% · #23Pressure31.8% · #10

CHI scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Detroit Lions

Amen OgbongbemigaLBLimited Participation in Practice
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLimited Participation in Practice
Blake MillerOffensive TackleOut
Brian BranchSLimited Participation in Practice
Cade MaysCDid Not Participate In Practice
Christian MahoganyGuardOut
D.J. ReedCBDid Not Participate In Practice
DJ WonnumDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Isiah PachecoRunning BackInjured Reserve
Jack CampbellLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Jacob SaylorsRBLimited Participation in Practice
Kerby JosephSLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)