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Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.204.

CHI team page →CLE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponent@ JAX

60.3%Win prob22.3%

0.418Equity score0.214

−3.0Spread11/11 books+8.5

47.0Game total40.0

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · CHI 5 — CLE 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1419.8

#17ELO rank#27

11-6Record5-12

NFC NorthDivisionAFC North

#1Division rank#4

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB13.3 · #5

21.7 · #16vs RB22.8 · #19

35.5 · #27vs WR26.9 · #8

13.1 · #14vs TE12.1 · #9

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game3.12 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game9.29

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-9

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion39.3% · #27

14.7% · #2Play action11.2% · #15

3.6% · #22RPO3.0% · #25

4.1% · #13Screen pass4.2% · #11

4.3% · #24No huddle7.5% · #12

44.2% · #28Shotgun55.8% · #14

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage41.3% · #5

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)28.1% · #15

28.7% · #23Pressure35.1% · #1

CHI scheme profile →CLE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)