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Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Bears at 0.418 — a real gap of 0.022.

CHI team page →CIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs TB

60.3%Win prob64.4%

0.418Equity score0.440

−3.0Spread11/11 books−3.5

47.0Game total50.5

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CHI 5 — CIN 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1474.0

#17ELO rank#22

11-6Record6-11

NFC NorthDivisionAFC North

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB18.4 · #26

21.7 · #16vs RB28.6 · #32

35.5 · #27vs WR25.3 · #2

13.1 · #14vs TE20.9 · #31

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game7.12

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion42.1% · #20

14.7% · #2Play action8.5% · #30

3.6% · #22RPO7.3% · #6

4.1% · #13Screen pass3.3% · #19

4.3% · #24No huddle2.5% · #31

44.2% · #28Shotgun67.0% · #3

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage36.6% · #11

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)17.6% · #32

28.7% · #23Pressure29.4% · #22

CHI scheme profile →CIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)