NFL Survivor Edge

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Carolina Panthers vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Panthers is the better survivor pick this week

Panthers score 0.307 equity (42.8% win probability) against Commanders at 0.263 — a real gap of 0.044.

CAR team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs LA
42.8%Win prob33.2%
0.307Equity score0.263
+2.5Spread11/11 books+4.5
44.0Game total48.0
▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · CAR 7 — WAS 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1456.0ELO rating1466.6
#24ELO rank#22
3-4Record2-4-1
NFC SouthDivisionNFC East
#1Division rank#3
L 8 · L 30 · W +11 · W +6 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.8 · #14vs QB20.0 · #25
28.3 · #28vs RB19.8 · #9
30.2 · #13vs WR33.6 · #18
13.9 · #15vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.43 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)
8.57Pressures / game10
4-6Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
10.4% · #21Play action11.9% · #11
7.8% · #5RPO6.3% · #12
3.0% · #22Screen pass3.7% · #16
4.7% · #23No huddle50.2% · #1
55.4% · #15Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage32.0% · #15
27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
21.3% · #32Pressure31.3% · #14
CAR scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

  • Bobby Brown IIIDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Bobby OkerekeLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Brady ChristensenGFull Participation in Practice
  • Bryce YoungQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Corey BullockGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Damien LewisGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
  • Jaelan PhillipsLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Taylor MotonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

Washington Commanders

  • Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
  • Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
  • Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
  • Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

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