NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Panthers is the better survivor pick this week

Panthers score 0.307 equity (42.7% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.056.

CAR team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponent@ CHI
42.7%Win prob29.4%
0.307Equity score0.250
+2.5Spread11/11 books+6.0
44.0Game total47.5
▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7TB @ CAR43-13 · TB
Week 12CAR @ TBnot played yet

All-time series: 49 meetings · CAR 25 — TB 24. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1456.0ELO rating1474.2
#24ELO rank#19
3-4Record3-5
NFC SouthDivisionNFC South
#1Division rank#2
L 8 · L 30 · W +11 · W +6 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.8 · #14vs QB11.6 · #3
28.3 · #28vs RB16.9 · #1
30.2 · #13vs WR28.5 · #8
13.9 · #15vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
8.57Pressures / game7.43
4-6Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
10.4% · #21Play action8.4% · #31
7.8% · #5RPO6.4% · #11
3.0% · #22Screen pass5.1% · #5
4.7% · #23No huddle5.5% · #19
55.4% · #15Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage30.3% · #18
27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
21.3% · #32Pressure34.1% · #3
CAR scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

  • Bobby Brown IIIDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Bobby OkerekeLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Brady ChristensenGFull Participation in Practice
  • Bryce YoungQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Corey BullockGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Damien LewisGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
  • Jaelan PhillipsLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Taylor MotonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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