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Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Panthers at 0.332 — a real gap of 0.057.

CAR team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CHIOpponent@ SEA

39.7%Win prob52.6%

0.332Equity score0.388

+3.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

47.0Game total29.5

▲ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · CAR 3 — NE 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1434.3ELO rating1561.9

#25ELO rank#8

8-9Record14-3

NFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 3 · L 2 · L 17 · W +3 · L 3Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.8 · #6vs QB14.7 · #11

24.1 · #24vs RB19.0 · #5

26.6 · #7vs WR29.2 · #13

13.7 · #18vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.72 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

5.94Pressures / game7.95

3-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

10.4% · #21Play action10.8% · #19

7.8% · #5RPO1.3% · #30

3.0% · #22Screen pass2.3% · #30

4.7% · #23No huddle2.8% · #29

55.4% · #15Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage32.5% · #14

27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

21.3% · #32Pressure29.8% · #18

CAR scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

Bobby Brown IIIDTLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Damien LewisGuardQuestionable
Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
Jonathon BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
Patrick Jones IILBDid Not Participate In Practice

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)