NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.450 equity (60.5% win probability) against Panthers at 0.307 — a real gap of 0.143.

CAR team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs GB
42.8%Win prob60.5%
0.307Equity score0.450
+2.5Spread11/11 books−3.0
44.0Game total45.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · CAR 3 — NE 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1456.0ELO rating1557.2
#24ELO rank#7
3-4Record5-3
NFC SouthDivisionAFC East
#1Division rank#2
L 8 · L 30 · W +11 · W +6 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.8 · #14vs QB15.1 · #10
28.3 · #28vs RB18.9 · #6
30.2 · #13vs WR33.8 · #20
13.9 · #15vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
8.57Pressures / game8.14
4-6Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
10.4% · #21Play action10.8% · #19
7.8% · #5RPO1.3% · #30
3.0% · #22Screen pass2.3% · #30
4.7% · #23No huddle2.8% · #29
55.4% · #15Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage32.5% · #14
27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
21.3% · #32Pressure29.8% · #18
CAR scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

  • Bobby Brown IIIDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Bobby OkerekeLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Brady ChristensenGFull Participation in Practice
  • Bryce YoungQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Corey BullockGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Damien LewisGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
  • Jaelan PhillipsLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Taylor MotonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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