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Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Panthers at 0.332 — a real gap of 0.204.

CAR team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CHIOpponentvs CLE

39.7%Win prob77.7%

0.332Equity score0.536

+3.0Spread11/11 books−8.5

47.0Game total40.0

▲ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · CAR 4 — JAX 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1434.3ELO rating1528.9

#25ELO rank#14

8-9Record13-4

NFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#1

L 3 · L 2 · L 17 · W +3 · L 3Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.8 · #6vs QB15.9 · #15

24.1 · #24vs RB18.7 · #2

26.6 · #7vs WR31.2 · #17

13.7 · #18vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.72 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

5.94Pressures / game9.28

3-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

10.4% · #21Play action10.2% · #22

7.8% · #5RPO3.6% · #21

3.0% · #22Screen pass3.8% · #15

4.7% · #23No huddle6.1% · #16

55.4% · #15Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage25.4% · #26

27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

21.3% · #32Pressure27.9% · #26

CAR scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

Bobby Brown IIIDTLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Damien LewisGuardQuestionable
Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
Jonathon BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
Patrick Jones IILBDid Not Participate In Practice

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)