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Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.340 equity (43.2% win probability) against Panthers at 0.332 — a real gap of 0.008.

CAR team page →DEN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CHIOpponent@ KC

39.7%Win prob43.2%

0.332Equity score0.340

+3.0Spread11/11 books+2.5

47.0Game total43.5

▲ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9DEN @ CARnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · CAR 2 — DEN 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1434.3ELO rating1588.3

#25ELO rank#4

8-9Record14-3

NFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#1

L 3 · L 2 · L 17 · W +3 · L 3Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.8 · #6vs QB14.2 · #9

24.1 · #24vs RB17.0 · #1

26.6 · #7vs WR27.0 · #9

13.7 · #18vs TE13.7 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.72 (2025)Sacks / game4 (2025)

5.94Pressures / game13.05

3-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

34.5% · #31Pre-snap motion39.9% · #25

10.4% · #21Play action12.5% · #7

7.8% · #5RPO7.0% · #9

3.0% · #22Screen pass5.5% · #3

4.7% · #23No huddle11.0% · #5

55.4% · #15Shotgun54.3% · #16

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.4% · #30Man coverage44.4% · #1

27.1% · #19Blitz (5+ rushers)32.8% · #6

21.3% · #32Pressure33.7% · #5

CAR scheme profile →DEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Carolina Panthers

Bobby Brown IIIDTLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Damien LewisGuardQuestionable
Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
Jonathon BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
Patrick Jones IILBDid Not Participate In Practice

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)