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Buffalo Bills vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.389 equity (52.8% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.098.

BUF team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponent@ PHI

52.8%Win prob31.9%

0.389Equity score0.291

−1.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

45.0Game total44.5

▼ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · BUF 7 — WAS 1. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1464.1

#2ELO rank#24

12-5Record5-12

AFC EastDivisionNFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB19.5 · #30

24.4 · #25vs RB25.6 · #27

26.5 · #5vs WR34.9 · #25

—vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game7.47

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

11.6% · #13Play action11.9% · #11

5.4% · #13RPO6.3% · #12

4.4% · #9Screen pass3.7% · #16

4.7% · #22No huddle50.2% · #1

42.6% · #29Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage32.0% · #15

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

34.2% · #2Pressure31.3% · #14

BUF scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)