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Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Titans is the better survivor pick this week

Titans score 0.396 equity (52.6% win probability) against Bills at 0.389 — a real gap of 0.006.

BUF team page →TEN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponentvs NYJ

52.8%Win prob52.6%

0.389Equity score0.396

−1.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

45.0Game total38.5

▼ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 14 meetings · BUF 6 — TEN 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1362.6

#2ELO rank#32

12-5Record3-14

AFC EastDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#4

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 34 · L 8 · W +17 · L 13 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB19.0 · #28

24.4 · #25vs RB21.6 · #14

26.5 · #5vs WR35.6 · #28

—vs TE14.2 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game9.06

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-7

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion35.5% · #29

11.6% · #13Play action9.9% · #24

5.4% · #13RPO8.6% · #3

4.4% · #9Screen pass5.7% · #2

4.7% · #22No huddle8.2% · #9

42.6% · #29Shotgun58.9% · #11

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage27.1% · #22

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #24

34.2% · #2Pressure29.5% · #21

BUF scheme profile →TEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Tennessee Titans

Ali GayeLinebackerQuestionable
Amani HookerSafetyOut
Anfernee OrjiLinebackerInjured Reserve
Arden KeyLinebackerQuestionable
Blake HanceGuardQuestionable
Bryce OliverWide ReceiverOut
C.J. RavenellDefensive EndOut
Calvin RidleyWide ReceiverOut
Cam HorsleyDefensive TackleOut
Cam WardQuarterbackOut
Cedric GrayLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Chandler BrewerOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(mentions Titans)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)