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Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.389 equity (52.8% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.079.

BUF team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponent@ CIN

52.8%Win prob35.6%

0.389Equity score0.310

−1.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

45.0Game total50.5

▼ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · BUF 4 — TB 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1487.8

#2ELO rank#18

12-5Record8-9

AFC EastDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB19.5 · #29

24.4 · #25vs RB22.2 · #18

26.5 · #5vs WR31.5 · #19

—vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game7.82

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

11.6% · #13Play action8.4% · #31

5.4% · #13RPO6.4% · #11

4.4% · #9Screen pass5.1% · #5

4.7% · #22No huddle5.5% · #19

42.6% · #29Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage30.3% · #18

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

34.2% · #2Pressure34.1% · #3

BUF scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)