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Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.483 equity (70.6% win probability) against Bills at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.095.

BUF team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponentvs ATL

52.7%Win prob70.6%

0.388Equity score0.483

−1.5Spread11/11 books−6.0

44.5Game total41.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 13 meetings · BUF 6 — PIT 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1529.4

#2ELO rank#13

12-5Record10-7

AFC EastDivisionAFC North

#2Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB18.8 · #27

24.4 · #25vs RB19.5 · #8

26.5 · #5vs WR35.2 · #26

—vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game9

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

11.6% · #13Play action9.2% · #27

5.4% · #13RPO7.0% · #10

4.4% · #9Screen pass6.6% · #1

4.7% · #22No huddle9.7% · #7

42.6% · #29Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage36.9% · #10

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

34.2% · #2Pressure29.5% · #20

BUF scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)