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Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.445 equity (61.7% win probability) against Jets at 0.190 — a real gap of 0.255.

BUF team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponent@ KC

61.7%Win prob19.8%

0.445Equity score0.190

−3.0Spread11/11 books+10.0

45.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 10BUF @ NYJnot played yet

Week 18NYJ @ BUFnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · BUF 29 — NYJ 25. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1393.2

#1ELO rank#31

6-1Record2-6

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#3

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstL 5 · L 3 · L 7 · W +5 · L 11

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB18.0 · #16

27.4 · #27vs RB21.8 · #17

37.1 · #25vs WR28.8 · #9

14.1 · #17vs TE13.9 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game2.71 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game8.71

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

11.6% · #13Play action8.6% · #29

5.4% · #13RPO7.1% · #8

4.4% · #9Screen pass3.4% · #17

4.7% · #22No huddle8.1% · #10

42.6% · #29Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage40.5% · #6

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

34.2% · #2Pressure24.8% · #30

BUF scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBLimited Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
David BaileyDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)