Compare

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.389 equity (52.8% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.001.

BUF team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponent@ SEA

52.8%Win prob52.6%

0.389Equity score0.388

−1.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

45.0Game total29.5

▼ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4NE @ BUFnot played yet

Week 13BUF @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · BUF 16 — NE 39. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1561.9

#2ELO rank#8

12-5Record14-3

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB14.7 · #11

24.4 · #25vs RB19.0 · #5

26.5 · #5vs WR29.2 · #13

—vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game7.95

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

11.6% · #13Play action10.8% · #19

5.4% · #13RPO1.3% · #30

4.4% · #9Screen pass2.3% · #30

4.7% · #22No huddle2.8% · #29

42.6% · #29Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage32.5% · #14

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

34.2% · #2Pressure29.8% · #18

BUF scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)