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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.455 equity (61.0% win probability) against Bills at 0.444 — a real gap of 0.010.

BUF team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs GB

61.7%Win prob61.0%

0.444Equity score0.455

−3.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

45.0Game total45.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4NE @ BUF29-26 · NE

Week 13BUF @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 56 meetings · BUF 16 — NE 40. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1557.2

#1ELO rank#7

6-1Record5-3

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#2

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB15.1 · #10

27.4 · #27vs RB18.9 · #6

37.1 · #25vs WR33.8 · #20

14.1 · #17vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game8.14

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

11.6% · #13Play action10.8% · #19

5.4% · #13RPO1.3% · #30

4.4% · #9Screen pass2.3% · #30

4.7% · #22No huddle2.8% · #29

42.6% · #29Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage32.5% · #14

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

34.2% · #2Pressure29.8% · #18

BUF scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

New England Patriots

A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
Ben BrownCenterOut
Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)