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Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills play Vikings in Week 9

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices BUF carries the higher survivor equity score.

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs BUF
61.7%Win prob38.3%
0.445Equity score0.305
−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.0
45.5Game total45.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 9 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Matchup
BUF @ MIN
Spread (home)
+3.0 (11 books)
Total
45.5 (11 books)
Kickoff
Tue, 10 Nov 2026 01:15

Opened MIN +3.3, now MIN +3.0 · moved 0.3 toward MIN · Total 49.0 → 45.5 (−3.5)(240 snapshots)

No in-horizon weather forecast stored for this game yet.

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9BUF @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · BUF 4 — MIN 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1570.6
#1ELO rank#4
6-1Record6-1
AFC EastDivisionNFC North
#1Division rank#1
W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstL 4 · W +6 · W +10 · W +5 · W +7

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB7.8 · #1
27.4 · #27vs RB18.4 · #5
37.1 · #25vs WR25.9 · #4
14.1 · #17vs TE7.1 · #1

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game3.5 (2026)
10.83Pressures / game13.33
24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23
11.6% · #13Play action12.5% · #8
5.4% · #13RPO3.7% · #20
4.4% · #9Screen pass4.2% · #10
4.7% · #22No huddle6.1% · #15
42.6% · #29Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage19.0% · #32
26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1
34.2% · #2Pressure34.1% · #4

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

  • Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
  • Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
  • Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
  • Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
  • DJ MooreWRQuestionable
  • Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
  • Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
  • Greg GainesDTQuestionable
  • Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
  • Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Minnesota Vikings

  • Aaron JonesRBFull Participation in Practice
  • Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
  • Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
  • Austin KeysLinebackerOut
  • Ben SimsTight EndOut
  • Ben YurosekTight EndOut
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Brian O'NeillTFull Participation in Practice
  • Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
  • Christian DarrisawTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Corey KinerRunning BackOut
  • Desmond RidderQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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