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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.445 equity (61.7% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.231 — a real gap of 0.214.

BUF team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs DET

61.7%Win prob26.5%

0.445Equity score0.231

−3.0Spread11/11 books+7.0

45.5Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11MIA @ BUFnot played yet

Week 17BUF @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · BUF 35 — MIA 20. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1442.8

#1ELO rank#27

6-1Record1-6

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#4

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstL 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB20.0 · #24

27.4 · #27vs RB26.5 · #25

37.1 · #25vs WR25.4 · #3

14.1 · #17vs TE19.2 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game1 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game6.83

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

11.6% · #13Play action12.9% · #6

5.4% · #13RPO4.4% · #16

4.4% · #9Screen pass5.2% · #4

4.7% · #22No huddle3.1% · #28

42.6% · #29Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage28.4% · #21

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

34.2% · #2Pressure27.2% · #28

BUF scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)