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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.398 equity (52.7% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.326 — a real gap of 0.072.

BUF team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponent@ LV

52.7%Win prob39.5%

0.398Equity score0.326

−1.5Spread11/11 books+3.0

45.0Game total40.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11MIA @ BUFnot played yet

Week 17BUF @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · BUF 35 — MIA 20. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1475.1

#2ELO rank#21

12-5Record7-10

AFC EastDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB18.2 · #23

24.4 · #25vs RB25.5 · #26

26.5 · #5vs WR29.9 · #14

—vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game7.65

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

11.6% · #13Play action12.9% · #6

5.4% · #13RPO4.4% · #16

4.4% · #9Screen pass5.2% · #4

4.7% · #22No huddle3.1% · #28

42.6% · #29Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage28.4% · #21

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

34.2% · #2Pressure27.2% · #28

BUF scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)