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Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.554 equity (80.4% win probability) against Bills at 0.446 — a real gap of 0.108.

BUF team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponent@ BAL

61.0%Win prob80.4%

0.446Equity score0.554

−3.0Spread11/11 books−10.0

45.0Game total39.5

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 18 meetings · BUF 10 — JAX 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1543.1

#1ELO rank#11

6-1Record5-2

AFC EastDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#1

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstW +35 · L 3 · W +2 · W +5 · W +29

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB14.3 · #9

27.4 · #27vs RB17.0 · #2

37.1 · #25vs WR36.9 · #24

14.1 · #17vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game1.67 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game9.5

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

11.6% · #13Play action10.2% · #22

5.4% · #13RPO3.6% · #21

4.4% · #9Screen pass3.8% · #15

4.7% · #22No huddle6.1% · #16

42.6% · #29Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage25.4% · #26

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

34.2% · #2Pressure27.9% · #26

BUF scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Antonio JohnsonSLimited Participation in Practice
Bhayshul TutenRBQuestionable
Branson CombsLBLimited Participation in Practice
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBLimited Participation in Practice
DaVon HamiltonDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Eric MurraySDid Not Participate In Practice
Ezra ClevelandGLimited Participation in Practice
Jakobi MeyersWRLimited Participation in Practice
Jarrian JonesCBLimited Participation in Practice
Travon WalkerDEQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Jaguars)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)