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Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.535 equity (77.6% win probability) against Bills at 0.398 — a real gap of 0.137.

BUF team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponentvs CLE

52.7%Win prob77.6%

0.398Equity score0.535

−1.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

45.0Game total40.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 18 meetings · BUF 10 — JAX 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1528.9

#2ELO rank#14

12-5Record13-4

AFC EastDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB15.9 · #15

24.4 · #25vs RB18.7 · #2

26.5 · #5vs WR31.2 · #17

—vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game9.28

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

11.6% · #13Play action10.2% · #22

5.4% · #13RPO3.6% · #21

4.4% · #9Screen pass3.8% · #15

4.7% · #22No huddle6.1% · #16

42.6% · #29Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage25.4% · #26

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

34.2% · #2Pressure27.9% · #26

BUF scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)