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Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.446 equity (61.0% win probability) against Broncos at 0.443 — a real gap of 0.003.

BUF team page →DEN team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponent@ CAR

61.0%Win prob57.2%

0.446Equity score0.443

−3.0Spread11/11 books−2.5

45.0Game total44.0

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16BUF @ DENnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · BUF 6 — DEN 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1589.8

#1ELO rank#2

6-1Record6-2

AFC EastDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#1

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstW +4 · W +14 · W +3 · W +6 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB16.4 · #13

27.4 · #27vs RB25.3 · #22

37.1 · #25vs WR27.5 · #7

14.1 · #17vs TE16.7 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game3 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game11.14

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows12-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion39.9% · #25

11.6% · #13Play action12.5% · #7

5.4% · #13RPO7.0% · #9

4.4% · #9Screen pass5.5% · #3

4.7% · #22No huddle11.0% · #5

42.6% · #29Shotgun54.3% · #16

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage44.4% · #1

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)32.8% · #6

34.2% · #2Pressure33.7% · #5

BUF scheme profile →DEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Denver Broncos

Brandon JonesSDid Not Participate In Practice
Caleb LohnerTight EndInjured Reserve
Courtland SuttonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Eyioma UwazurikeDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Frank CrumOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Jaylen WaddleWRFull Participation in Practice
Jonah ColemanRunning BackInjured Reserve
Jonathon CooperLinebackerOut
Kris Abrams-DraineCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Levelle BaileyLinebackerInjured Reserve
Nick GargiuloGuardOut
Pat BryantWRFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)