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Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.398 equity (52.7% win probability) against Broncos at 0.336 — a real gap of 0.061.

BUF team page →DEN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponent@ KC

52.7%Win prob43.1%

0.398Equity score0.336

−1.5Spread11/11 books+2.5

45.0Game total43.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16BUF @ DENnot played yet

All-time series: 12 meetings · BUF 6 — DEN 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1588.3

#2ELO rank#4

12-5Record14-3

AFC EastDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB14.2 · #9

24.4 · #25vs RB17.0 · #1

26.5 · #5vs WR27.0 · #9

—vs TE13.7 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game4 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game13.05

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion39.9% · #25

11.6% · #13Play action12.5% · #7

5.4% · #13RPO7.0% · #9

4.4% · #9Screen pass5.5% · #3

4.7% · #22No huddle11.0% · #5

42.6% · #29Shotgun54.3% · #16

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage44.4% · #1

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)32.8% · #6

34.2% · #2Pressure33.7% · #5

BUF scheme profile →DEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)