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Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.500 equity (70.6% win probability) against Bills at 0.446 — a real gap of 0.054.

BUF team page →CHI team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs TB

61.0%Win prob70.6%

0.446Equity score0.500

−3.0Spread11/11 books−6.0

45.0Game total47.5

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15CHI @ BUFnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · BUF 4 — CHI 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1546.5

#1ELO rank#9

6-1Record6-2

AFC EastDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#2

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstW +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB19.1 · #22

27.4 · #27vs RB17.8 · #3

37.1 · #25vs WR31.2 · #15

14.1 · #17vs TE12.0 · #9

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game2.71 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game9

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows12-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion47.2% · #10

11.6% · #13Play action14.7% · #2

5.4% · #13RPO3.6% · #22

4.4% · #9Screen pass4.1% · #13

4.7% · #22No huddle4.3% · #24

42.6% · #29Shotgun44.2% · #28

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage43.8% · #2

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)28.7% · #11

34.2% · #2Pressure28.7% · #23

BUF scheme profile →CHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)