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Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Bills at 0.389 — a real gap of 0.029.

BUF team page →CHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponent@ CAR

52.8%Win prob60.3%

0.389Equity score0.418

−1.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

45.0Game total47.0

▼ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.011

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15CHI @ BUFnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · BUF 4 — CHI 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1510.3

#2ELO rank#17

12-5Record11-6

AFC EastDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB18.1 · #22

24.4 · #25vs RB21.7 · #16

26.5 · #5vs WR35.5 · #27

—vs TE13.1 · #14

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.22 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game7.94

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion47.2% · #10

11.6% · #13Play action14.7% · #2

5.4% · #13RPO3.6% · #22

4.4% · #9Screen pass4.1% · #13

4.7% · #22No huddle4.3% · #24

42.6% · #29Shotgun44.2% · #28

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage43.8% · #2

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)28.7% · #11

34.2% · #2Pressure28.7% · #23

BUF scheme profile →CHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)