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Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.434 equity (61.0% win probability) against Panthers at 0.307 — a real gap of 0.126.

BUF team page →CAR team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs DEN

61.0%Win prob42.8%

0.434Equity score0.307

−3.0Spread11/11 books+2.5

44.5Game total44.5

▲ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · BUF 5 — CAR 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1456.0

#1ELO rank#24

6-1Record3-4

AFC EastDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#1

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 30 · W +11 · W +6 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB16.8 · #14

27.4 · #27vs RB28.3 · #28

37.1 · #25vs WR30.2 · #13

14.1 · #17vs TE13.9 · #15

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game1.43 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game8.57

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows4-6

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion34.5% · #31

11.6% · #13Play action10.4% · #21

5.4% · #13RPO7.8% · #5

4.4% · #9Screen pass3.0% · #22

4.7% · #22No huddle4.7% · #23

42.6% · #29Shotgun55.4% · #15

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage21.4% · #30

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)27.1% · #19

34.2% · #2Pressure21.3% · #32

BUF scheme profile →CAR scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Carolina Panthers

Bobby Brown IIIDTFull Participation in Practice
Bobby OkerekeLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Brady ChristensenGFull Participation in Practice
Bryce YoungQBFull Participation in Practice
Chris Brazzell IIWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Corey BullockGLimited Participation in Practice
Damien LewisGDid Not Participate In Practice
Dan ChisenaWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Ikem EkwonuOffensive TackleOut
Jaelan PhillipsLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Nic ScourtonLinebackerInjured Reserve
Taylor MotonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)