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Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Ravens is the better survivor pick this week

Ravens score 0.419 equity (61.4% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.128.

BAL team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponent@ PHI

61.4%Win prob31.9%

0.419Equity score0.291

−3.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

48.0Game total44.5

▼ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · BAL 4 — WAS 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1464.1

#12ELO rank#24

8-9Record5-12

AFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB19.5 · #30

23.7 · #23vs RB25.6 · #27

35.7 · #30vs WR34.9 · #25

10.9 · #6vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game7.47

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

8.9% · #28Play action11.9% · #11

4.4% · #17RPO6.3% · #12

2.8% · #24Screen pass3.7% · #16

2.7% · #30No huddle50.2% · #1

52.4% · #20Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage32.0% · #15

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

28.1% · #25Pressure31.3% · #14

BAL scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)