NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.459 equity (60.5% win probability) against Ravens at 0.195 — a real gap of 0.264.

BAL team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs JAXOpponentvs GB
19.5%Win prob60.5%
0.195Equity score0.459
+10.0Spread11/11 books−3.0
39.5Game total45.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · BAL 5 — NE 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1515.1ELO rating1557.2
#14ELO rank#7
4-4Record5-3
AFC NorthDivisionAFC East
#4Division rank#2
L 26 · L 22 · L 3 · W +7 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #18vs QB15.1 · #10
19.5 · #8vs RB18.9 · #6
35.0 · #21vs WR33.8 · #20
13.5 · #12vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
8.14Pressures / game8.14
23-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
8.9% · #28Play action10.8% · #19
4.4% · #17RPO1.3% · #30
2.8% · #24Screen pass2.3% · #30
2.7% · #30No huddle2.8% · #29
52.4% · #20Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage32.5% · #14
23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
28.1% · #25Pressure29.8% · #18
BAL scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

  • Adam RandallRBQuestionable
  • Calais CampbellDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Jaylinn HawkinsSOut
  • Joe FagnanoQBFull Participation in Practice
  • John JenkinsDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John SimpsonGFull Participation in Practice
  • Justice HillRBFull Participation in Practice
  • Lamar JacksonQBOut
  • Mark AndrewsTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Matthew HibnerTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Nate WigginsCBQuestionable
  • Olaivavega IoaneGFull Participation in Practice

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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