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Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Ravens at 0.419 — a real gap of 0.117.

BAL team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponentvs CLE

61.4%Win prob77.7%

0.419Equity score0.536

−3.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

48.0Game total40.0

▼ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9JAX @ BALnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · BAL 11 — JAX 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1528.9

#12ELO rank#14

8-9Record13-4

AFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#1

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB15.9 · #15

23.7 · #23vs RB18.7 · #2

35.7 · #30vs WR31.2 · #17

10.9 · #6vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game9.28

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

8.9% · #28Play action10.2% · #22

4.4% · #17RPO3.6% · #21

2.8% · #24Screen pass3.8% · #15

2.7% · #30No huddle6.1% · #16

52.4% · #20Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage25.4% · #26

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

28.1% · #25Pressure27.9% · #26

BAL scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)