NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Ravens play Jaguars in Week 9

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices JAX carries the higher survivor equity score.

BAL team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs JAXOpponent@ BAL
19.5%Win prob80.5%
0.195Equity score0.555
+10.0Spread11/11 books−10.0
39.5Game total39.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 9 · M&T Bank Stadium

Matchup
JAX @ BAL
Spread (home)
+10.0 (11 books)
Total
39.5 (11 books)
Kickoff
Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:15

Opened BAL −4.5, now BAL +10.0 · moved 14.5 toward JAX · Total 49.5 → 39.5 (−10.0)(245 snapshots)

Forecast: 66.8°F · wind 6.0 mph · 0% precip · Clouds

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9JAX @ BALnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · BAL 11 — JAX 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1515.1ELO rating1543.1
#14ELO rank#11
4-4Record5-2
AFC NorthDivisionAFC South
#4Division rank#1
L 26 · L 22 · L 3 · W +7 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +35 · L 3 · W +2 · W +5 · W +29

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #18vs QB14.3 · #9
19.5 · #8vs RB17.0 · #2
35.0 · #21vs WR36.9 · #24
13.5 · #12vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game1.67 (2026)
8.14Pressures / game9.5
23-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12
8.9% · #28Play action10.2% · #22
4.4% · #17RPO3.6% · #21
2.8% · #24Screen pass3.8% · #15
2.7% · #30No huddle6.1% · #16
52.4% · #20Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage25.4% · #26
23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18
28.1% · #25Pressure27.9% · #26
BAL scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

  • Adam RandallRBQuestionable
  • Calais CampbellDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Jaylinn HawkinsSOut
  • Joe FagnanoQBFull Participation in Practice
  • John JenkinsDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John SimpsonGFull Participation in Practice
  • Justice HillRBFull Participation in Practice
  • Lamar JacksonQBOut
  • Mark AndrewsTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Matthew HibnerTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Nate WigginsCBQuestionable
  • Olaivavega IoaneGFull Participation in Practice

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Antonio JohnsonSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Bhayshul TutenRBQuestionable
  • Branson CombsLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBLimited Participation in Practice
  • DaVon HamiltonDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Eric MurraySDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Ezra ClevelandGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Jakobi MeyersWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Jarrian JonesCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Travon WalkerDEQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

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