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Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Ravens at 0.419 — a real gap of 0.081.

BAL team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponentvs NO

61.4%Win prob73.2%

0.419Equity score0.500

−3.5Spread11/11 books−7.0

48.0Game total50.0

▼ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · BAL 5 — DET 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1564.1

#12ELO rank#7

8-9Record9-8

AFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#3

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstW +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB18.2 · #24

23.7 · #23vs RB19.4 · #7

35.7 · #30vs WR35.6 · #29

10.9 · #6vs TE13.7 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game3 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game9.25

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

8.9% · #28Play action12.0% · #10

4.4% · #17RPO3.1% · #24

2.8% · #24Screen pass4.9% · #6

2.7% · #30No huddle5.0% · #20

52.4% · #20Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage42.6% · #4

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

28.1% · #25Pressure31.8% · #10

BAL scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)