NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.443 equity (57.3% win probability) against Ravens at 0.195 — a real gap of 0.249.

BAL team page →DEN team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs JAXOpponent@ CAR
19.5%Win prob57.3%
0.195Equity score0.443
+10.0Spread11/11 books−2.5
39.5Game total44.0
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · BAL 11 — DEN 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1515.1ELO rating1589.8
#14ELO rank#2
4-4Record6-2
AFC NorthDivisionAFC West
#4Division rank#1
L 26 · L 22 · L 3 · W +7 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +4 · W +14 · W +3 · W +6 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #18vs QB16.4 · #13
19.5 · #8vs RB25.3 · #22
35.0 · #21vs WR27.5 · #7
13.5 · #12vs TE16.7 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game3 (2026)
8.14Pressures / game11.14
23-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows12-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion39.9% · #25
8.9% · #28Play action12.5% · #7
4.4% · #17RPO7.0% · #9
2.8% · #24Screen pass5.5% · #3
2.7% · #30No huddle11.0% · #5
52.4% · #20Shotgun54.3% · #16

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage44.4% · #1
23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)32.8% · #6
28.1% · #25Pressure33.7% · #5
BAL scheme profile →DEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

  • Adam RandallRBQuestionable
  • Calais CampbellDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Jaylinn HawkinsSOut
  • Joe FagnanoQBFull Participation in Practice
  • John JenkinsDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John SimpsonGFull Participation in Practice
  • Justice HillRBFull Participation in Practice
  • Lamar JacksonQBOut
  • Mark AndrewsTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Matthew HibnerTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Nate WigginsCBQuestionable
  • Olaivavega IoaneGFull Participation in Practice

Denver Broncos

  • Brandon JonesSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Caleb LohnerTight EndInjured Reserve
  • Courtland SuttonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Eyioma UwazurikeDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Frank CrumOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Jaylen WaddleWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Jonah ColemanRunning BackInjured Reserve
  • Jonathon CooperLinebackerOut
  • Kris Abrams-DraineCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Levelle BaileyLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Nick GargiuloGuardOut
  • Pat BryantWRFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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