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Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Ravens is the better survivor pick this week

Ravens score 0.419 equity (61.4% win probability) against Bears at 0.418 — a real gap of 0.001.

BAL team page →CHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponent@ CAR

61.4%Win prob60.3%

0.419Equity score0.418

−3.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

48.0Game total47.0

▼ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.011

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · BAL 4 — CHI 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1510.3

#12ELO rank#17

8-9Record11-6

AFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#1

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB18.1 · #22

23.7 · #23vs RB21.7 · #16

35.7 · #30vs WR35.5 · #27

10.9 · #6vs TE13.1 · #14

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.22 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game7.94

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion47.2% · #10

8.9% · #28Play action14.7% · #2

4.4% · #17RPO3.6% · #22

2.8% · #24Screen pass4.1% · #13

2.7% · #30No huddle4.3% · #24

52.4% · #20Shotgun44.2% · #28

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage43.8% · #2

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)28.7% · #11

28.1% · #25Pressure28.7% · #23

BAL scheme profile →CHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)