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Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.434 equity (61.0% win probability) against Ravens at 0.191 — a real gap of 0.243.

BAL team page →BUF team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs JAXOpponent@ MIN

19.9%Win prob61.0%

0.191Equity score0.434

+9.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

39.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8BAL @ BUF10-36 · BUF

All-time series: 15 meetings · BAL 7 — BUF 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1515.1ELO rating1603.7

#14ELO rank#1

4-4Record6-1

AFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#1

L 26 · L 22 · L 3 · W +7 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #18vs QB18.4 · #20

19.5 · #8vs RB27.4 · #27

35.0 · #21vs WR37.1 · #25

13.5 · #12vs TE14.1 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

8.14Pressures / game10.83

23-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows24-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion50.2% · #6

8.9% · #28Play action11.6% · #13

4.4% · #17RPO5.4% · #13

2.8% · #24Screen pass4.4% · #9

2.7% · #30No huddle4.7% · #22

52.4% · #20Shotgun42.6% · #29

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage31.3% · #17

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)26.4% · #20

28.1% · #25Pressure34.2% · #2

BAL scheme profile →BUF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adam RandallRBQuestionable
Calais CampbellDTFull Participation in Practice
Jaylinn HawkinsSOut
Joe FagnanoQBFull Participation in Practice
John JenkinsDTFull Participation in Practice
John SimpsonGFull Participation in Practice
Justice HillRBFull Participation in Practice
Lamar JacksonQBOut
Mark AndrewsTEFull Participation in Practice
Matthew HibnerTEFull Participation in Practice
Nate WigginsCBQuestionable
Olaivavega IoaneGFull Participation in Practice

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)