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Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Ravens is the better survivor pick this week

Ravens score 0.419 equity (61.4% win probability) against Bills at 0.389 — a real gap of 0.030.

BAL team page →BUF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponent@ HOU

61.4%Win prob52.8%

0.419Equity score0.389

−3.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

48.0Game total45.0

▼ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8BAL @ BUFnot played yet

All-time series: 14 meetings · BAL 7 — BUF 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1535.9ELO rating1601.7

#12ELO rank#2

8-9Record12-5

AFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#2

L 2 · W +17 · L 4 · W +24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.7 · #21vs QB13.1 · #4

23.7 · #23vs RB24.4 · #25

35.7 · #30vs WR26.5 · #5

10.9 · #6vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game1.95 (2025)

7.65Pressures / game7.84

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion50.2% · #6

8.9% · #28Play action11.6% · #13

4.4% · #17RPO5.4% · #13

2.8% · #24Screen pass4.4% · #9

2.7% · #30No huddle4.7% · #22

52.4% · #20Shotgun42.6% · #29

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage31.3% · #17

23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)26.4% · #20

28.1% · #25Pressure34.2% · #2

BAL scheme profile →BUF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

Adisa IsaacLinebackerQuestionable
Aeneas PeeblesDefensive TackleOut
Bilhal KoneCornerbackInjured Reserve
Carson VinsonOffensive TackleOut
Chidobe AwuzieCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Dayton WadeWide ReceiverQuestionable
DeAndre HopkinsWide ReceiverQuestionable
Devontez WalkerWRLimited Participation in Practice
Emery Jones Jr.Offensive TackleOut
Isaiah LikelyTight EndQuestionable
Jaire AlexanderCornerbackOut

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)