NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Falcons is the better survivor pick this week

Falcons score 0.299 equity (39.4% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.049.

ATL team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CINOpponent@ CHI
39.4%Win prob29.4%
0.299Equity score0.250
+3.0Spread11/11 books+6.0
52.5Game total47.5
▲ 0.009Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8ATL @ TB0-16 · TB
Week 16TB @ ATLnot played yet

All-time series: 51 meetings · ATL 25 — TB 26. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1470.1ELO rating1474.2
#21ELO rank#19
3-5Record3-5
NFC SouthDivisionNFC South
#3Division rank#2
L 16 · W +9 · L 8 · L 7 · W +21Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

15.6 · #11vs QB11.6 · #3
27.1 · #26vs RB16.9 · #1
30.1 · #12vs WR28.5 · #8
13.9 · #14vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
11.14Pressures / game7.43
9-7Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
9.3% · #26Play action8.4% · #31
3.7% · #19RPO6.4% · #11
3.8% · #14Screen pass5.1% · #5
9.5% · #8No huddle5.5% · #19
66.0% · #4Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage30.3% · #18
34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
31.3% · #13Pressure34.1% · #3
ATL scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

  • A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackInjured Reserve
  • Beaux CollinsWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Billy Bowman Jr.CBFull Participation in Practice
  • Brian RobinsonRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cameron WilliamsTFull Participation in Practice
  • Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
  • Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Divine DeabloLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Ethan OnianwaOffensive TackleOut
  • Jake MatthewsOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • James Pearce Jr.DEFull Participation in Practice
  • Jared IveyLinebackerOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Track your real pool free — 10-day trial, no card →