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Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.314 equity (35.7% win probability) against Falcons at 0.296 — a real gap of 0.018.

ATL team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ CIN

33.0%Win prob35.7%

0.296Equity score0.314

+4.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

41.5Game total50.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8ATL @ TBnot played yet

Week 16TB @ ATLnot played yet

All-time series: 50 meetings · ATL 25 — TB 25. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1487.8

#20ELO rank#18

8-9Record8-9

NFC SouthDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#2

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB19.5 · #29

21.7 · #15vs RB22.2 · #18

33.6 · #23vs WR31.5 · #19

10.2 · #3vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game7.82

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

9.3% · #26Play action8.4% · #31

3.7% · #19RPO6.4% · #11

3.8% · #14Screen pass5.1% · #5

9.5% · #8No huddle5.5% · #19

66.0% · #4Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage30.3% · #18

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

31.3% · #13Pressure34.1% · #3

ATL scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)