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Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.306 equity (35.8% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.015.

ATL team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ LA

32.8%Win prob35.8%

0.291Equity score0.306

+5.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

41.5Game total47.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7SF @ ATLnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · ATL 9 — SF 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1559.3

#20ELO rank#9

8-9Record12-5

NFC SouthDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#2

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB17.1 · #20

21.7 · #15vs RB23.6 · #22

33.6 · #23vs WR32.2 · #21

10.2 · #3vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game5.95

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

9.3% · #26Play action10.8% · #17

3.7% · #19RPO0.6% · #31

3.8% · #14Screen pass3.0% · #23

9.5% · #8No huddle3.7% · #26

66.0% · #4Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage26.6% · #24

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

31.3% · #13Pressure23.2% · #31

ATL scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Da'Shawn HandDTLimited Participation in Practice
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)