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Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.562 equity (79.4% win probability) against Falcons at 0.299 — a real gap of 0.262.

ATL team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CINOpponentvs LV

39.4%Win prob79.4%

0.299Equity score0.562

+3.0Spread11/11 books−10.0

52.5Game total52.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7SF @ ATL20-29 · ATL

All-time series: 19 meetings · ATL 10 — SF 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1470.1ELO rating1575.5

#21ELO rank#3

3-5Record6-1

NFC SouthDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#1

L 16 · W +9 · L 8 · L 7 · W +21Last 5newest firstL 9 · W +6 · W +3 · W +10 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

15.6 · #11vs QB—

27.1 · #26vs RB—

30.1 · #12vs WR—

13.9 · #14vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.14 (2026)

11.14Pressures / game9.71

9-7Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows24-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

9.3% · #26Play action10.8% · #17

3.7% · #19RPO0.6% · #31

3.8% · #14Screen pass3.0% · #23

9.5% · #8No huddle3.7% · #26

66.0% · #4Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage26.6% · #24

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

31.3% · #13Pressure23.2% · #31

ATL scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackInjured Reserve
Beaux CollinsWRFull Participation in Practice
Billy Bowman Jr.CBFull Participation in Practice
Brian RobinsonRBLimited Participation in Practice
Cameron WilliamsTFull Participation in Practice
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Divine DeabloLBLimited Participation in Practice
Ethan OnianwaOffensive TackleOut
Jake MatthewsOffensive TackleQuestionable
James Pearce Jr.DEFull Participation in Practice
Jared IveyLinebackerOut

San Francisco 49ers

Christian KirkWRLimited Participation in Practice
Christian McCaffreyRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRDid Not Participate In Practice
Demarcus RobinsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLBLimited Participation in Practice
Kurtis RourkeQuarterbackOut
Luke GiffordLBLimited Participation in Practice
Marques SigleSLimited Participation in Practice
Mike EvansWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Mykel WilliamsDEFull Participation in Practice
Nate HobbsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BosaDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)