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Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Eagles is the better survivor pick this week

Eagles score 0.459 equity (68.1% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.168.

ATL team page →PHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponentvs WAS

32.8%Win prob68.1%

0.291Equity score0.459

+5.0Spread11/11 books−5.5

41.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 18 meetings · ATL 6 — PHI 12. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1589.5

#20ELO rank#3

8-9Record11-6

NFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#1

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 7 · W +1 · W +11 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB14.5 · #10

21.7 · #15vs RB22.9 · #20

33.6 · #23vs WR26.5 · #6

10.2 · #3vs TE8.3 · #1

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.39 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game8.17

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows19-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion36.4% · #28

9.3% · #26Play action10.1% · #23

3.7% · #19RPO5.4% · #14

3.8% · #14Screen pass2.1% · #32

9.5% · #8No huddle15.9% · #4

66.0% · #4Shotgun62.9% · #7

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage43.5% · #3

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)19.7% · #31

31.3% · #13Pressure32.8% · #8

ATL scheme profile →PHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
A.J. WoodsCornerbackQuestionable
Adoree' JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
AJ DillonRunning BackOut
Azeez OjulariLinebackerOut
Brandon JohnsonCornerbackQuestionable
Brett TothCenterOut
Byron YoungDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JurgensCenterOut
Cameron LatuTight EndOut
Dallas GoedertTight EndQuestionable
Darius CooperWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)