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Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jets is the better survivor pick this week

Jets score 0.357 equity (47.7% win probability) against Falcons at 0.269 — a real gap of 0.088.

ATL team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ TEN

29.7%Win prob47.7%

0.269Equity score0.357

+6.0Spread11/11 books+1.0

41.0Game total38.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ATL 5 — NYJ 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1379.3

#20ELO rank#30

8-9Record3-14

NFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#4

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB19.9 · #31

21.7 · #15vs RB28.0 · #31

33.6 · #23vs WR30.3 · #16

10.2 · #3vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game5.18

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

9.3% · #26Play action8.6% · #29

3.7% · #19RPO7.1% · #8

3.8% · #14Screen pass3.4% · #17

9.5% · #8No huddle8.1% · #10

66.0% · #4Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage40.5% · #6

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

31.3% · #13Pressure24.8% · #30

ATL scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Da'Shawn HandDTLimited Participation in Practice
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)