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Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Falcons is the better survivor pick this week

Falcons score 0.299 equity (39.4% win probability) against Jets at 0.188 — a real gap of 0.112.

ATL team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CINOpponent@ KC

39.4%Win prob19.6%

0.299Equity score0.188

+3.0Spread11/11 books+10.0

52.5Game total47.5

▲ 0.009Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ATL 5 — NYJ 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1470.1ELO rating1393.2

#21ELO rank#31

3-5Record2-6

NFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 16 · W +9 · L 8 · L 7 · W +21Last 5newest firstL 5 · L 3 · L 7 · W +5 · L 11

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

15.6 · #11vs QB18.0 · #16

27.1 · #26vs RB21.8 · #17

30.1 · #12vs WR28.8 · #9

13.9 · #14vs TE13.9 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.71 (2026)

11.14Pressures / game8.71

9-7Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

9.3% · #26Play action8.6% · #29

3.7% · #19RPO7.1% · #8

3.8% · #14Screen pass3.4% · #17

9.5% · #8No huddle8.1% · #10

66.0% · #4Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage40.5% · #6

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

31.3% · #13Pressure24.8% · #30

ATL scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackInjured Reserve
Beaux CollinsWRFull Participation in Practice
Billy Bowman Jr.CBFull Participation in Practice
Brian RobinsonRBLimited Participation in Practice
Cameron WilliamsTFull Participation in Practice
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Divine DeabloLBLimited Participation in Practice
Ethan OnianwaOffensive TackleOut
Jake MatthewsOffensive TackleQuestionable
James Pearce Jr.DEFull Participation in Practice
Jared IveyLinebackerOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBLimited Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
David BaileyDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)