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Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Falcons is the better survivor pick this week

Falcons score 0.296 equity (33.0% win probability) against Saints at 0.253 — a real gap of 0.043.

ATL team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ DET

33.0%Win prob27.0%

0.296Equity score0.253

+4.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

41.5Game total50.0

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4ATL @ NOnot played yet

Week 17NO @ ATLnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · ATL 22 — NO 32. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1432.4

#20ELO rank#26

8-9Record6-11

NFC SouthDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#4

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB14.0 · #8

21.7 · #15vs RB20.8 · #13

33.6 · #23vs WR27.8 · #12

10.2 · #3vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game8.53

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

9.3% · #26Play action9.6% · #25

3.7% · #19RPO4.7% · #15

3.8% · #14Screen pass2.7% · #26

9.5% · #8No huddle18.7% · #2

66.0% · #4Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage22.1% · #28

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

31.3% · #13Pressure28.2% · #24

ATL scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Devaughn VeleWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)