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Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.340 equity (43.2% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.049.

ATL team page →DEN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ KC

32.8%Win prob43.2%

0.291Equity score0.340

+5.0Spread11/11 books+2.5

41.5Game total43.5

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ATL 4 — DEN 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1588.3

#20ELO rank#4

8-9Record14-3

NFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#1

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB14.2 · #9

21.7 · #15vs RB17.0 · #1

33.6 · #23vs WR27.0 · #9

10.2 · #3vs TE13.7 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game4 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game13.05

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion39.9% · #25

9.3% · #26Play action12.5% · #7

3.7% · #19RPO7.0% · #9

3.8% · #14Screen pass5.5% · #3

9.5% · #8No huddle11.0% · #5

66.0% · #4Shotgun54.3% · #16

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage44.4% · #1

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)32.8% · #6

31.3% · #13Pressure33.7% · #5

ATL scheme profile →DEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)