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Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Falcons is the better survivor pick this week

Falcons score 0.291 equity (32.8% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.077.

ATL team page →CLE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ JAX

32.8%Win prob22.3%

0.291Equity score0.214

+5.0Spread11/11 books+8.5

41.5Game total40.0

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14ATL @ CLEnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · ATL 2 — CLE 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1419.8

#20ELO rank#27

8-9Record5-12

NFC SouthDivisionAFC North

#1Division rank#4

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB13.3 · #5

21.7 · #15vs RB22.8 · #19

33.6 · #23vs WR26.9 · #8

10.2 · #3vs TE12.1 · #9

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game3.12 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game9.29

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-9

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion39.3% · #27

9.3% · #26Play action11.2% · #15

3.7% · #19RPO3.0% · #25

3.8% · #14Screen pass4.2% · #11

9.5% · #8No huddle7.5% · #12

66.0% · #4Shotgun55.8% · #14

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage41.3% · #5

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)28.1% · #15

31.3% · #13Pressure35.1% · #1

ATL scheme profile →CLE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)