NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.149.

ATL team page →CIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponentvs TB
32.8%Win prob64.4%
0.291Equity score0.440
+5.0Spread11/11 books−3.5
41.5Game total50.5
▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9CIN @ ATLnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · ATL 3 — CIN 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1474.0
#20ELO rank#22
8-9Record6-11
NFC SouthDivisionAFC North
#1Division rank#3
W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB18.4 · #26
21.7 · #15vs RB28.6 · #32
33.6 · #23vs WR25.3 · #2
10.2 · #3vs TE20.9 · #31

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2 (2025)
9.18Pressures / game7.12
7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion42.1% · #20
9.3% · #26Play action8.5% · #30
3.7% · #19RPO7.3% · #6
3.8% · #14Screen pass3.3% · #19
9.5% · #8No huddle2.5% · #31
66.0% · #4Shotgun67.0% · #3

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage36.6% · #11
34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)17.6% · #32
31.3% · #13Pressure29.4% · #22
ATL scheme profile →CIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

  • A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
  • Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
  • Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
  • Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
  • Da'Shawn HandDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
  • DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
  • Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
  • Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
  • Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
  • Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
  • Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
  • Cordell VolsonGuardOut
  • Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
  • DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
  • Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Relevant to this matchup

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