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Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.398 equity (52.7% win probability) against Falcons at 0.296 — a real gap of 0.102.

ATL team page →BUF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponent@ HOU

33.0%Win prob52.7%

0.296Equity score0.398

+4.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

41.5Game total45.0

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ATL 5 — BUF 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1601.7

#20ELO rank#2

8-9Record12-5

NFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#2

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB13.1 · #4

21.7 · #15vs RB24.4 · #25

33.6 · #23vs WR26.5 · #5

10.2 · #3vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game1.95 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game7.84

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion50.2% · #6

9.3% · #26Play action11.6% · #13

3.7% · #19RPO5.4% · #13

3.8% · #14Screen pass4.4% · #9

9.5% · #8No huddle4.7% · #22

66.0% · #4Shotgun42.6% · #29

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage31.3% · #17

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)26.4% · #20

31.3% · #13Pressure34.2% · #2

ATL scheme profile →BUF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut
Elijah GarciaDefensive TackleOut

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)