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Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.446 equity (61.8% win probability) against Falcons at 0.299 — a real gap of 0.146.

ATL team page →BUF team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CINOpponent@ MIN

39.4%Win prob61.8%

0.299Equity score0.446

+3.0Spread11/11 books−3.5

52.5Game total45.0

▲ 0.009Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ATL 5 — BUF 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1470.1ELO rating1603.7

#21ELO rank#1

3-5Record6-1

NFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 16 · W +9 · L 8 · L 7 · W +21Last 5newest firstW +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

15.6 · #11vs QB18.4 · #20

27.1 · #26vs RB27.4 · #27

30.1 · #12vs WR37.1 · #25

13.9 · #14vs TE14.1 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.43 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

11.14Pressures / game10.83

9-7Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows24-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion50.2% · #6

9.3% · #26Play action11.6% · #13

3.7% · #19RPO5.4% · #13

3.8% · #14Screen pass4.4% · #9

9.5% · #8No huddle4.7% · #22

66.0% · #4Shotgun42.6% · #29

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage31.3% · #17

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)26.4% · #20

31.3% · #13Pressure34.2% · #2

ATL scheme profile →BUF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackInjured Reserve
Beaux CollinsWRFull Participation in Practice
Billy Bowman Jr.CBFull Participation in Practice
Brian RobinsonRBLimited Participation in Practice
Cameron WilliamsTFull Participation in Practice
Cooper RushQuarterbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Divine DeabloLBLimited Participation in Practice
Ethan OnianwaOffensive TackleOut
Jake MatthewsOffensive TackleQuestionable
James Pearce Jr.DEFull Participation in Practice
Jared IveyLinebackerOut

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)