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Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.310 equity (35.6% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.111.

ARI team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ CIN

19.9%Win prob35.6%

0.199Equity score0.310

+9.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.5Game total50.5

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 9 meetings · ARI 4 — TB 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1487.8

#29ELO rank#18

3-14Record8-9

NFC WestDivisionNFC South

#4Division rank#2

L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB19.5 · #29

26.9 · #30vs RB22.2 · #18

30.2 · #15vs WR31.5 · #19

16.9 · #30vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

6.82Pressures / game7.82

3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

13.8% · #3Play action8.4% · #31

2.0% · #26RPO6.4% · #11

4.7% · #8Screen pass5.1% · #5

9.9% · #6No huddle5.5% · #19

59.2% · #9Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage30.3% · #18

27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

25.7% · #29Pressure34.1% · #3

ARI scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSDid Not Participate In Practice
Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
Josh SweatLBLimited Participation in Practice
Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)