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Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.306 equity (35.8% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.107.

ARI team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ LA

19.9%Win prob35.8%

0.199Equity score0.306

+9.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3ARI @ SFnot played yet

Week 18SF @ ARInot played yet

All-time series: 50 meetings · ARI 22 — SF 28. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1559.3

#29ELO rank#9

3-14Record12-5

NFC WestDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#2

L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB17.1 · #20

26.9 · #30vs RB23.6 · #22

30.2 · #15vs WR32.2 · #21

16.9 · #30vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

6.82Pressures / game5.95

3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

13.8% · #3Play action10.8% · #17

2.0% · #26RPO0.6% · #31

4.7% · #8Screen pass3.0% · #23

9.9% · #6No huddle3.7% · #26

59.2% · #9Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage26.6% · #24

27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

25.7% · #29Pressure23.2% · #31

ARI scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSLimited Participation in Practice
Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
Josh SweatLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)