NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.450 equity (60.5% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.200 — a real gap of 0.250.

ARI team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ SEAOpponentvs GB
22.6%Win prob60.5%
0.200Equity score0.450
+8.5Spread11/11 books−3.0
39.5Game total45.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.009

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · ARI 2 — NE 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1431.0ELO rating1557.2
#30ELO rank#7
3-5Record5-3
NFC WestDivisionAFC East
#4Division rank#2
W +3 · L 14 · W +2 · L 24 · L 12Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

22.0 · #27vs QB15.1 · #10
20.8 · #13vs RB18.9 · #6
33.5 · #17vs WR33.8 · #20
15.4 · #21vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
6.86Pressures / game8.14
3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
13.8% · #3Play action10.8% · #19
2.0% · #26RPO1.3% · #30
4.7% · #8Screen pass2.3% · #30
9.9% · #6No huddle2.8% · #29
59.2% · #9Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage32.5% · #14
27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
25.7% · #29Pressure29.8% · #18
ARI scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

  • Bam KnightRBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Budda BakerSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Hjalte FroholdtCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Isaac SeumaloGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Isaiah AdamsGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Jacoby BrissettQBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
  • Jayden WilliamsTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
  • Jon Gaines IIGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Josh SweatLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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