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Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.337.

ARI team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponentvs CLE

19.9%Win prob77.7%

0.199Equity score0.536

+9.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

47.5Game total40.0

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ARI 4 — JAX 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1528.9

#29ELO rank#14

3-14Record13-4

NFC WestDivisionAFC South

#4Division rank#1

L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB15.9 · #15

26.9 · #30vs RB18.7 · #2

30.2 · #15vs WR31.2 · #17

16.9 · #30vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

6.82Pressures / game9.28

3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

13.8% · #3Play action10.2% · #22

2.0% · #26RPO3.6% · #21

4.7% · #8Screen pass3.8% · #15

9.9% · #6No huddle6.1% · #16

59.2% · #9Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage25.4% · #26

27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

25.7% · #29Pressure27.9% · #26

ARI scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSLimited Participation in Practice
Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
Josh SweatLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)