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Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.219.

ARI team page →CHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ CAR

19.9%Win prob60.3%

0.199Equity score0.418

+9.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

47.5Game total47.0

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.011

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 10 meetings · ARI 4 — CHI 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1510.3

#29ELO rank#17

3-14Record11-6

NFC WestDivisionNFC North

#4Division rank#1

L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB18.1 · #22

26.9 · #30vs RB21.7 · #16

30.2 · #15vs WR35.5 · #27

16.9 · #30vs TE13.1 · #14

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.22 (2025)

6.82Pressures / game7.94

3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion47.2% · #10

13.8% · #3Play action14.7% · #2

2.0% · #26RPO3.6% · #22

4.7% · #8Screen pass4.1% · #13

9.9% · #6No huddle4.3% · #24

59.2% · #9Shotgun44.2% · #28

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage43.8% · #2

27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)28.7% · #11

25.7% · #29Pressure28.7% · #23

ARI scheme profile →CHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSLimited Participation in Practice
Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
Josh SweatLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)