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Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo Bills

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.389 equity (52.8% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.191.

ARI team page →BUF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ HOU

19.9%Win prob52.8%

0.199Equity score0.389

+9.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

47.5Game total45.0

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · ARI 2 — BUF 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1601.7

#29ELO rank#2

3-14Record12-5

NFC WestDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#2

L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB13.1 · #4

26.9 · #30vs RB24.4 · #25

30.2 · #15vs WR26.5 · #5

16.9 · #30vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game1.95 (2025)

6.82Pressures / game7.84

3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion50.2% · #6

13.8% · #3Play action11.6% · #13

2.0% · #26RPO5.4% · #13

4.7% · #8Screen pass4.4% · #9

9.9% · #6No huddle4.7% · #22

59.2% · #9Shotgun42.6% · #29

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage31.3% · #17

27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)26.4% · #20

25.7% · #29Pressure34.2% · #2

ARI scheme profile →BUF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSDid Not Participate In Practice
Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
Josh SweatLBLimited Participation in Practice
Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)