NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Falcons is the better survivor pick this week

Falcons score 0.291 equity (32.8% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.092.

ARI team page →ATL team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponent@ PIT
19.9%Win prob32.8%
0.199Equity score0.291
+9.5Spread11/11 books+5.0
47.5Game total41.5
▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · ARI 5 — ATL 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1475.8
#29ELO rank#20
3-14Record8-9
NFC WestDivisionNFC South
#4Division rank#1
L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstW +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB16.3 · #17
26.9 · #30vs RB21.7 · #15
30.2 · #15vs WR33.6 · #23
16.9 · #30vs TE10.2 · #3

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game3.35 (2025)
6.82Pressures / game9.18
3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-6

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion53.0% · #3
13.8% · #3Play action9.3% · #26
2.0% · #26RPO3.7% · #19
4.7% · #8Screen pass3.8% · #14
9.9% · #6No huddle9.5% · #8
59.2% · #9Shotgun66.0% · #4

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage33.4% · #12
27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)34.9% · #2
25.7% · #29Pressure31.3% · #13
ARI scheme profile →ATL scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

  • Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
  • Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
  • Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
  • Josh SweatLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Atlanta Falcons

  • A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
  • Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
  • Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
  • Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
  • Da'Shawn HandDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
  • DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
  • Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
  • Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

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