strategy personas
Eight rules, five real seasons
Each persona is a fixed, deterministic selection rule run against the same real de-vigged sportsbook prices the rest of the site uses. No repeat teams, real bye weeks, real outcomes.
Chalk Chaser
Biggest favorite, every week.
Iron Fist
80% or nothing.
Leverage Player
Best equity, not best odds.
Home Dog Hunter
Backs the home underdog.
Path Optimizer
Follows the simulator.
The Gambler
The thinnest pick still worth making.
Coin Flip
No information at all.
Divisional Dodger
Avoids the rivalry games.
Path Optimizer · 2024
Takes the Monte Carlo engine's top-ranked recommendation each week, replayed through the same one-step-lookahead + scarcity-ordered greedy tail policy (computeOptimalPath in montecarlo.ts).
weeks survived
0
eliminated
week 1
weeks played
18
weeks skipped
0
| wk | pick | opponent | win prob | equity | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CIN | vs NE | 76.3% | 0.513 | lost |
| W2 | KC | vs CIN | 69.6% | 0.478 | won |
| W3 | CLE | vs NYG | 71.9% | 0.477 | lost |
| W4 | SF | vs NE | 82.0% | 0.570 | won |
| W5 | SEA | vs NYG | 73.7% | 0.497 | lost |
| W6 | HOU | @ NE | 71.9% | 0.488 | won |
| W7 | LA | vs LV | 73.2% | 0.499 | won |
| W8 | DEN | vs CAR | 82.3% | 0.581 | won |
| W9 | NO | @ CAR | 74.8% | 0.515 | lost |
| W10 | LAC | vs TEN | 75.5% | 0.515 | won |
| W11 | MIA | vs LV | 74.7% | 0.515 | won |
| W12 | WAS | vs DAL | 81.5% | 0.575 | lost |
| W13 | DET | vs CHI | 80.5% | 0.563 | won |
| W14 | PHI | vs CAR | 86.1% | 0.611 | won |
| W15 | BAL | @ NYG | 89.9% | 0.649 | won |
| W16 | GB | vs NO | 88.4% | 0.634 | won |
| W17 | BUF | vs NYJ | 80.5% | 0.555 | won |
| W18 | TB | vs NO | 87.1% | 0.629 | won |
Leaderboard
Mean weeks survived across 5 real seasons (2021–2025).
| # | persona | mean weeks | best | worst | full seasons | weeks skipped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iron Fist 80% or nothing. | 8.00 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 40 |
| 2 | Chalk Chaser Biggest favorite, every week. | 4.20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Leverage Player Best equity, not best odds. | 4.20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Path Optimizer Follows the simulator. | 3.20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Divisional Dodger Avoids the rivalry games. | 3.00 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | The Gambler The thinnest pick still worth making. | 1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Coin Flip No information at all. | 1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Home Dog Hunter Backs the home underdog. | 0.40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Want to track a persona against the live season? Adopt one in the sandbox — it is separate from your real pools.