path survival · 2 min read
2026 Week 3 Path Survival Alert: Seattle Seahawks Drifts Up in the Simulations
Same-state Monte Carlo snapshots for 2026 Week 3: which top survivor options moved in the simulated season paths as the market shifted.
Today’s alert highlights a meaningful rise in the Seattle Seahawks’ share of winning simulated seasons. Because both simulations used the same starting point and random seed, the change reflects movement in the betting market rather than the calendar, a new opponent, or ordinary simulation noise.
- Top-10 equity teams checked
- 10
- Teams past the threshold
- 1
- Biggest move
- Seattle Seahawks 1.01pp
- Hours between snapshots
- 24
Seattle Seahawks — +1.01pp
Seattle Seahawks (equity rank 6, current de-vigged win probability 71.1%) faces Washington Commanders in Week 3: its share of winning simulated seasons moved up from 3.17% to 4.18% (1.01 percentage points) between two simulations run from an identical starting state.
The Seattle Seahawks’ share of winning simulated seasons rose from 3.17% to 4.18%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points. They rank sixth in equity and have a current de-vigged win probability of 71.1% against the Washington Commanders in Week 3.
How to use it
Survivor players should read simulation drift as a sign that the market has changed how a team fits into the full-season survival path. It is useful context, not a prediction or a recommendation to select that team.
How this was built
Every day we re-run the same 10,000-trial full-season survivor simulation from an identical starting state: 2026 Week 3, no teams used, the same random seed and the same trial count. Only the live de-vigged betting odds change between runs, so a change in a team's share of winning simulated seasons is market drift and nothing else. A team appears here when it sits inside the week's top ten by equity score and its share moved at least 1 percentage point against the previous same-state run. Repeating the identical state with different seeds moves shares about 0.2 percentage points, which is why the bar sits well above that.
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