How the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-11-05 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
90-55
Win rate
62.1%
Sample size
145 games
vs market
-4.9 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the betting favorite in 145 graded games and won 90 of them — 62.1%. The market priced those same games at 94.9 expected wins, so they finished -4.9 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 44-17 (72.1%) across 61 games, against 45.9 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at CAR · 2022 Week 784.5%
Lost 3–21 on 2022-10-23 · game detail
- vs LV · 2008 Week 1782.9%
Lost 24–31 on 2008-12-28 · game detail
- vs NO · 2021 Week 1581.3%
Lost 0–9 on 2021-12-19 · game detail
- at WAS · 2021 Week 1078.9%
Lost 19–29 on 2021-11-14 · game detail
- vs NO · 2025 Week 1477.7%
Lost 20–24 on 2025-12-07 · game detail
- vs CLE · 2026 Week 277.7%
Lost 19–23 on 2026-09-20 · game detail
- at PIT · 2022 Week 677.1%
Lost 18–20 on 2022-10-16 · game detail
- vs PHI · 2012 Week 1474.9%
Lost 21–23 on 2012-12-09 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 138-0 as favorite · market expected 64.8%100%
- Week 117-1 as favorite · market expected 62.0%88%
- Week 125-1 as favorite · market expected 64.2%83%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 83-6 as favorite · market expected 60.5%33%
- Week 34-6 as favorite · market expected 61.5%40%
- Week 164-5 as favorite · market expected 69.2%44%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 60% |
| Week 2 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 70% |
| Week 3 | 10 | 4-6 | 40% | 61% |
| Week 4 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 64% |
| Week 5 | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 6 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 63% |
| Week 7 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 71% |
| Week 8 | 9 | 3-6 | 33% | 60% |
| Week 9 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 63% |
| Week 10 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 64% |
| Week 11 | 8 | 7-1 | 88% | 62% |
| Week 12 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 64% |
| Week 13 | 8 | 8-0 | 100% | 65% |
| Week 14 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 65% |
| Week 15 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 73% |
| Week 16 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 69% |
| Week 17 | 10 | 5-5 | 50% | 69% |
| Week 18 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 72% |
| Week 19 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 67% |
| Week 20 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 58% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.