How the San Francisco 49ers Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-08 to 2026-10-25
As favorite
130-63
Win rate
67.4%
Sample size
193 games
vs market
-1.1 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The San Francisco 49ers have been the betting favorite in 193 graded games and won 130 of them — 67.4%. The market priced those same games at 131.1 expected wins, so they finished -1.1 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 80-28 (74.1%) across 108 games, against 81.1 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs LA · 2012 Week 1084.8%
Lost 24–24 on 2012-11-11 · game detail
- vs LA · 2014 Week 982.1%
Lost 10–13 on 2014-11-02 · game detail
- vs IND · 2013 Week 381.6%
Lost 7–27 on 2013-09-22 · game detail
- vs ATL · 2019 Week 1579.6%
Lost 22–29 on 2019-12-15 · game detail
- at CLE · 2023 Week 679.1%
Lost 17–19 on 2023-10-15 · game detail
- at LV · 2014 Week 1476.5%
Lost 13–24 on 2014-12-07 · game detail
- vs MIA · 2020 Week 575.8%
Lost 17–43 on 2020-10-11 · game detail
- at LA · 2012 Week 1374.9%
Lost 13–16 on 2012-12-02 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 1712-0 as favorite · market expected 74.3%100%
- Week 1210-0 as favorite · market expected 67.3%100%
- Week 29-2 as favorite · market expected 68.8%82%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 74-6 as favorite · market expected 62.1%40%
- Week 35-7 as favorite · market expected 66.0%42%
- Week 135-6 as favorite · market expected 63.2%45%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 65% |
| Week 2 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 69% |
| Week 3 | 12 | 5-7 | 42% | 66% |
| Week 4 | 11 | 8-3 | 73% | 68% |
| Week 5 | 12 | 8-4 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 6 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 72% |
| Week 7 | 10 | 4-6 | 40% | 62% |
| Week 8 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 69% |
| Week 9 | 6 | 3-3 | 50% | 70% |
| Week 10 | 10 | 6-4 | 60% | 69% |
| Week 11 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 72% |
| Week 12 | 10 | 10-0 | 100% | 67% |
| Week 13 | 11 | 5-6 | 45% | 63% |
| Week 14 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 66% |
| Week 15 | 10 | 7-3 | 70% | 69% |
| Week 16 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 68% |
| Week 17 | 12 | 12-0 | 100% | 74% |
| Week 18 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 73% |
| Week 19 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 71% |
| Week 20 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 68% |
| Week 21 | 2 | 1-1 | 50% | 70% |
| Week 22 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 52% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.