How the Pittsburgh Steelers Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-15 to 2026-11-01
As favorite
150-74
Win rate
67.0%
Sample size
224 games
vs market
-1.7 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the betting favorite in 224 graded games and won 150 of them — 67.0%. The market priced those same games at 151.7 expected wins, so they finished -1.7 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 92-29 (76.0%) across 121 games, against 90.9 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs LV · 2009 Week 1390.1%
Lost 24–27 on 2009-12-06 · game detail
- at CIN · 2020 Week 1587.6%
Lost 17–27 on 2020-12-21 · game detail
- at KC · 2009 Week 1185.4%
Lost 24–27 on 2009-11-22 · game detail
- at BAL · 2015 Week 1682.6%
Lost 17–20 on 2015-12-27 · game detail
- at CLE · 2009 Week 1482.1%
Lost 6–13 on 2009-12-10 · game detail
- at LV · 2006 Week 880.5%
Lost 13–20 on 2006-10-29 · game detail
- at LV · 2018 Week 1479.8%
Lost 21–24 on 2018-12-09 · game detail
- at NYJ · 2007 Week 1178.6%
Lost 16–19 on 2007-11-18 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 610-2 as favorite · market expected 70.3%83%
- Week 59-2 as favorite · market expected 68.4%82%
- Week 119-2 as favorite · market expected 73.1%82%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 44-9 as favorite · market expected 62.0%31%
- Week 36-5 as favorite · market expected 65.3%55%
- Week 148-6 as favorite · market expected 69.4%57%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 10 | 8-2 | 80% | 67% |
| Week 2 | 13 | 8-5 | 62% | 68% |
| Week 3 | 11 | 6-5 | 55% | 65% |
| Week 4 | 13 | 4-9 | 31% | 62% |
| Week 5 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 68% |
| Week 6 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 70% |
| Week 7 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 63% |
| Week 8 | 11 | 7-4 | 64% | 67% |
| Week 9 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 66% |
| Week 10 | 17 | 11-6 | 65% | 68% |
| Week 11 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 73% |
| Week 12 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 73% |
| Week 13 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 71% |
| Week 14 | 14 | 8-6 | 57% | 69% |
| Week 15 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 62% |
| Week 16 | 14 | 9-5 | 64% | 67% |
| Week 17 | 14 | 11-3 | 79% | 70% |
| Week 18 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 65% |
| Week 19 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 69% |
| Week 20 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 69% |
| Week 21 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 68% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.