How the Philadelphia Eagles Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2026 · 2006-10-02 to 2026-09-28
As favorite
151-83
Win rate
64.5%
Sample size
234 games
vs market
-6.2 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been the betting favorite in 234 graded games and won 151 of them — 64.5%. The market priced those same games at 157.2 expected wins, so they finished -6.2 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 92-41 (69.2%) across 133 games, against 98.4 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- at LV · 2009 Week 689.1%
Lost 9–13 on 2009-10-18 · game detail
- vs MIN · 2010 Week 1688.7%
Lost 14–24 on 2010-12-28 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2006 Week 1187.2%
Lost 13–31 on 2006-11-19 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2011 Week 1085.4%
Lost 17–21 on 2011-11-13 · game detail
- vs ARI · 2023 Week 1784.7%
Lost 31–35 on 2023-12-31 · game detail
- vs SF · 2011 Week 481.3%
Lost 23–24 on 2011-10-02 · game detail
- vs WAS · 2022 Week 1080.8%
Lost 21–32 on 2022-11-14 · game detail
- at MIA · 2019 Week 1379.9%
Lost 31–37 on 2019-12-01 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 910-2 as favorite · market expected 66.0%83%
- Week 1710-2 as favorite · market expected 70.9%83%
- Week 149-2 as favorite · market expected 62.1%82%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 184-5 as favorite · market expected 64.0%44%
- Week 45-6 as favorite · market expected 65.4%45%
- Week 26-7 as favorite · market expected 64.5%46%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 16 | 13-3 | 81% | 66% |
| Week 2 | 13 | 6-7 | 46% | 64% |
| Week 3 | 15 | 9-6 | 60% | 67% |
| Week 4 | 11 | 5-6 | 45% | 65% |
| Week 5 | 13 | 8-5 | 62% | 68% |
| Week 6 | 16 | 10-6 | 63% | 65% |
| Week 7 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 64% |
| Week 8 | 13 | 10-3 | 77% | 70% |
| Week 9 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 66% |
| Week 10 | 12 | 6-6 | 50% | 69% |
| Week 11 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 69% |
| Week 12 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 67% |
| Week 13 | 12 | 7-5 | 58% | 67% |
| Week 14 | 11 | 9-2 | 82% | 62% |
| Week 15 | 12 | 9-3 | 75% | 74% |
| Week 16 | 15 | 9-6 | 60% | 69% |
| Week 17 | 12 | 10-2 | 83% | 71% |
| Week 18 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 64% |
| Week 19 | 3 | 1-2 | 33% | 66% |
| Week 20 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 70% |
| Week 21 | 2 | 2-0 | 100% | 63% |
| Week 22 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 52% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.