How the New York Jets Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-15 to 2025-10-19
As favorite
65-52
Win rate
55.6%
Sample size
117 games
vs market
-8.6 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The New York Jets have been the betting favorite in 117 graded games and won 65 of them — 55.6%. The market priced those same games at 73.6 expected wins, so they finished -8.6 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 29-12 (70.7%) across 41 games, against 30.0 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs BUF · 2009 Week 679.0%
Lost 13–16 on 2009-10-18 · game detail
- vs DEN · 2024 Week 477.7%
Lost 9–10 on 2024-09-29 · game detail
- vs DEN · 2008 Week 1376.0%
Lost 17–34 on 2008-11-30 · game detail
- at NE · 2024 Week 872.2%
Lost 22–25 on 2024-10-27 · game detail
- at DEN · 2011 Week 1171.9%
Lost 13–17 on 2011-11-17 · game detail
- vs JAX · 2009 Week 1071.2%
Lost 22–24 on 2009-11-15 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2018 Week 1070.9%
Lost 10–41 on 2018-11-11 · game detail
- vs GB · 2010 Week 870.5%
Lost 0–9 on 2010-10-31 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 126-0 as favorite · market expected 72.0%100%
- Week 67-1 as favorite · market expected 68.6%88%
- Week 146-3 as favorite · market expected 68.0%67%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 111-4 as favorite · market expected 65.6%20%
- Week 102-6 as favorite · market expected 62.4%25%
- Week 83-7 as favorite · market expected 63.6%30%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 61% |
| Week 2 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 3 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 58% |
| Week 4 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 62% |
| Week 5 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 58% |
| Week 6 | 8 | 7-1 | 88% | 69% |
| Week 7 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 58% |
| Week 8 | 10 | 3-7 | 30% | 64% |
| Week 9 | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 66% |
| Week 10 | 8 | 2-6 | 25% | 62% |
| Week 11 | 5 | 1-4 | 20% | 66% |
| Week 12 | 6 | 6-0 | 100% | 72% |
| Week 13 | 9 | 4-5 | 44% | 59% |
| Week 14 | 9 | 6-3 | 67% | 68% |
| Week 15 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 64% |
| Week 16 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 58% |
| Week 17 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 63% |
| Week 18 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 53% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.